Today’s issue of WorkCompRecap features NCCI’s release of its Quarterly Economics Briefing report for the second quarter of 2023. The report examines various economic indicators to assess the likelihood and shape of a potential recession. NCCI points out that the US labor market remains strong with steady employment growth, high wage growth – particularly for production and nonsupervisory workers, hiring rates above and layoffs below pre-pandemic levels, and an increase in around 2.5 million open jobs since before the pandemic.
The report also addresses lingering anxieties around a recession. Though present indicators do not signal an imminent recession or major slowdown, the report predicts a deceleration in economic growth towards the end of 2023 due to households drawing down their excess savings. It also highlights the probable impact of such a slowdown or recession on businesses relevant to workers’ compensation.