Boca Raton, FL – NCCI recently released its Quarterly Economics Briefing report for the second quarter of 2023, which examines economic indicators to assess the likelihood and shape of a potential recession.
NCCI noted that the US labor market remains strong. In the second quarter of 2023, employment growth held steady and wage growth remained high, especially for production and nonsupervisory workers. Hiring remained above and layoffs remained below pre-pandemic levels, and there are now around 2.5 million more open jobs than before the pandemic.
However, anxiety persists about the possibility of a looming recession despite these strong indicators. The report addresses two key questions in its economic outlook:
- What are likely drivers of a potential recession?
- Do we see evidence of these in the economy to date?
Current economic indicators do not suggest an imminent recession or major slowdown. However, drawdowns of households’ excess savings are likely to contribute to slowing economic growth by the end of 2023.
Types of businesses impactful to workers compensation, including those in construction and manufacturing industries and many small businesses, are likely to be among those most affected by an economic slowdown or recession.
Read the free report: NCCI Q2 2023 Quarterly Economics Briefing (PDF)