Boca Raton, FL – NCCI recently released its Quarterly Economics Briefing report for the first quarter of 2022, noting that the US economy’s return to full employment marks the end of recovery from the COVID recession.
The report also examines how production and employment have changed in today’s “new normal” and the parts of the economy where jobs are growing faster or slower. With fewer workers now than before the pandemic, the labor force has also changed, and NCCI explores who the missing workers are.
Also included in the report is an analysis of potential recession scenarios and probabilities for the US in the coming years.
Key findings included:
- Employment in the private sector closed to within 1 million of its pre-pandemic level in March. Net of Leisure and Hospitality with 1.4 million fewer jobs, employment in the rest of the US economy is higher than before the pandemic.
- The period of post-COVID economic recovery is over. With unemployment below 4%, a tight labor market, and price inflation, the US economy is running at full employment but with a smaller labor force than in pre-pandemic times.
- Including public workers and the unemployed, there were about 2 million fewer individuals in the labor force during the first quarter of 2022 than immediately prior to the COVID pandemic two years ago. Today’s labor force includes fewer women, young and old workers, and immigrant workers.
- The Russia-Ukraine war is already creating supply shortages and raising prices in global markets for food and energy. A prolonged war through the end of 2022, as now appears likely, increases the chance of a global recession. A global recession precipitated by food and energy crises resulting from a lengthy war in Ukraine is the most threatening scenario for a US recession in the next two years, in our view. We think that the United States is unlikely to fall into recession otherwise.
Read the free report: NCCI: Q1 2022 Quarterly Economics Briefing