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NCCI Releases Q3 2020 Quarterly Economics Briefing

- WorkCompWire

Boca Raton, FL – The National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI) recently released its Quarterly Economics Briefing for Q3 2020. This edition delivers two reports on how the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has affected employment.

As US Employment Recovers From COVID-19, Services and States Are Key

Key Findings:

  • The employment gap—the difference between actual and seasonally expected employment— has recovered from its April low of ‒16.3% but remains depressed at ‒7.6% in September.
  • Four service sectors: Leisure and Hospitality; Retail Trade; Professional, Business, and Other Services; and Education and Health Services, account for 77% of the employment gap.
  • Construction and Manufacturing are not major contributors to the employment gap nationally, although these sectors do significantly impact some states.
  • Employment gaps vary considerably across states. August employment gaps can largely be explained by state experiences during the pandemic’s initial phase through April and by regional clustering.
  • Variation in employment gaps among states has become increasingly independent of the intensity of the coronavirus pandemic in those states.
  • Employment in the United States appears to be on a path of gradual recovery. However, the rate of job recovery has slowed from July to September and the proportion of unemployed workers on permanent layoff has steadily increased.

Average Wages During the Coronavirus Pandemic

Key findings:

  • Average weekly earnings rose sharply during the pandemic-related recession, mostly because employment losses are concentrated in low-wage sectors and low-wage jobs within sectors
  • Weekly earnings growth is driven much more by average hourly earnings than average weekly hours, but declines in such hours in Construction and Manufacturing slowed weekly wage growth
  • Year-over-year earnings growth was almost identical to that in the prior year after adjusting for worker mix, even at the height of the pandemic
  • Average weekly earnings growth is expected to slow through the remainder of 2020 and into 2021

Read the full reports:

Source: NCCI