Boca Raton, FL – NCCI recently announced the release of the Q4 2018 edition of its Quarterly Economics Briefing, which examines the current state of the economy and implications for workers compensation insurance, and is separated into two sections: “Review of Current Conditions” and “Drilling Down”.
Review of Current Conditions
Key takeaways include:
- Employment growth is expected to come in at 1.9% in 2018, slightly above 2017; it is forecasted to drop off to 1.7% in 2019
- Wage growth for 2018 is expected to be 3.3%, accelerating to 4.7% in 2019
- Medical inflation is projected to be above 2% in 2018, and higher in 2019
- Early December forecasts for rising interest rates in 2019 may get revised down
Read the NCCI Review of Current Conditions
Drilling Down: Employment and Wage Growth by State and Economic Sector
Key takeaways include:
- Florida, Texas, and the Mountain West states are expected to realize the highest rates of employment growth for 2018, at or above 2.6%
- Many states experienced annual wage growth above 3.1% during 2018; states where wages grew more slowly are mainly concentrated in the Midwest and Southeast, as well as New York and its surrounding states
- State employment growth above the national average usually indicates employment growth across all economic sectors, not growth concentrated in specific sectors
- Nationally and for most states, Professional and Business Services is the single most impactful sector for driving wage growth
Read the Drilling Down Brief
Source: NCCI